Simulation Scenarios

Figura 1 - Scenarios Window

The Scenario command in the Explore Menu opens the Scenario window (Figure 1, right) which displays scenario analysis results for outputs in an @RISK model. Scenario analysis helps in identifying which input variables contribute significantly towards reaching a specific outcome for the selected output; the Scenarios window shows a ranked list of the inputs that had a measurable effect on the output given the scenario selected in the Settings/Actions menu.

To view the scenario analysis for an output, select the output from the top pull-down menu.

To switch between scenarios, use the Settings/Actions menu to select which scenario is displayed.

For simulation runs that include multiple simulations, each output will be listed for each of the simulations, with the simulation name appended to the output name in the pull-down menu (e.g. 'Net Income / Y1 (Sim #1)').

@RISK allows for three scenarios to be defined. These scenarios can be modified using the Scenario Settings command from the Settings/Actions menu (see below).

Scenarios Command Buttons

The Scenarios window includes all of the standard command buttons detailed in Simulation Details. The Settings/Actions button includes the following commands:

  • Settings/Actions - Window-specific setting options and commands. The Scenarios window Settings/Actions are:
    • Scenario 1, 2, & 3 - The first three options of the menu correspond to the three defined scenarios. Select the scenario to be displayed in the window.
    • Show Scatter Plot Matrix - Show a scatter plot matrix in addition to the values for each input. See below for more information.
    • Scenario Settings - Opens the Sensitivity Settings window to configure the selected ranking method. See below for more information.
    • Find - Open the Find panel (Figure 2, below) at the top of the window.

    • Figura 2 - Scenario Find Panel

Scenario Settings

Figura 3 - Scenario Settings Window

The scenarios @RISK is configured to use can be modified in the Scenario Settings window (Figure 3, right). The Scenario Settings window has two primary configuration:

  • Display - Configured the value that will be displayed in the Scenarios window for each input.
    • Input Significance (Median/Std Dev) - Display the input significance of the input.
    • Actual Values - Display the actual values of the input.
    • Percentile Values - Display the inputs percentile.
  • Scenarios - Configure the three scenarios.
    • Scenario - The scenario number.

    • Please note: The name of each scenario is automatically generated based on the configuration of the scenario (e.g. 'Output > 75%' for scenario #1 in Figure 3, above); these names cannot be edited.

    • Using - Select 'Values' or 'Percentiles' to determine how inputs are filtered.
    • Minimum - The lower bound of the scenario filter.
    • Maximum - The upper bound of the scenario filter.

Scenario Scatter Plots

Figura 4 - Scenarios Scatter Plots

Toggling the Show Scatter Plot Matrix option of the Settings/Actions menu will display the scatter plots for each input within the scenario analysis results (Figure 4, right). The values for each cell will still be displayed in the lower right corner.

The colors of the scatter plot are determined by the settings in Scatter tab of the Graphing Preferences.