RiskCIMean

Description

RiskCIMean(cellref or output/input name,confidence level,lower bound,Sim#) returns the lower or upper bound of the confidence interval of the mean of the simulated distribution for cellref.  Instead of a single point estimate for the mean, a confidence interval generates lower and upper bounds for the possible value of the mean, at a given confidence level.  You can use the RiskTruncate property function to optionally restrict the range of the simulated distribution for calculating the statistic.

Examples

RiskCIMean (A10,.95) returns the lower bound of the confidence interval of the mean of the simulated distribution for cell A10.

RiskCIMean ("Profit",.95, FALSE) returns upper bound of the confidence interval of the mean for the simulated distribution for the output cell named “Profit”.

Guidelines

Enter TRUE for lower bound to return the bottom of the confidence interval, and FALSE to return the top of the confidence interval.   TRUE is the default if the third parameter is omitted.

Note that the returned confidence interval assumes Monte Carlo sampling, so if the samples for the simulated distribution were generated using Latin Hypercube sampling, the returned confidence interval may be conservative, that is, larger than it needs to be. See this page for more information.